Ghana in Focus Special: The Cedi appreciation - The Good, Bad and the Ugly

Ghana's currency, the cedi, has undergone a remarkable transformation in 2025, emerging as the world's best-performing currency just two and a half years after being ranked the world's worst in 2022. This extraordinary turnaround has seen the cedi appreciate by nearly 50% against the US dollar since January, strengthening from 15 cedis per dollar to approximately 10.2 cedis today. Such a dramatic shift deserves examination to understand both its causes and potential sustainability.

The foundations of this currency revival can be traced to December's decisive election results, which saw John Mahama and the NDC secure the largest margin of victory in Ghana's recent electoral history. This political shift signalled improved investor confidence, as the new administration quickly implemented substantial economic reforms. These included cutting government expenditure and waste—areas the previous administration had been reluctant to address—and streamlining the budget through measures that proved popular with both voters and the business community, such as eliminating the COVID levy, emissions levy, and e-levy.

Perhaps the most striking economic achievement has been the stabilization of inflation. At the close of 2022, Ghana's inflation rate stood at a staggering 54.8%. While it had declined to around 28% by the last election, it has now fallen to approximately 18.4%, down from 23% in May. This downward trajectory reflects the current government's commitment to fiscal discipline, including restrictions on first-class travel for government officials.

The successful restructuring of $13 billion in Eurobond debt has further eased Ghana's external debt burden. With the cedi's appreciation against the dollar, the government has effectively paid half of its restructured debt to external creditors, creating more fiscal space. This debt restructuring, combined with disciplined spending, is expected to reduce Ghana's debt-to-GDP ratio from 95% in 2022 to approximately 60% by the end of this year.

Agriculture, particularly crops like cocoa and cashew nuts, has experienced strong growth supported by irrigation and mechanization programs. The mining sector, especially lithium (which is crucial for AI and electric vehicles), is expanding rapidly, alongside manufacturing and construction.  These factors have led to credit rating upgrades, with Fitch recently improving Ghana's rating from default to B- with a stable outlook.

Outlook ==== The World Bank and IMF both acknowledge Ghana's progress but stress the importance of:

• Continuing fiscal discipline
• Enhancing domestic revenue mobilization
• Implementing structural reforms in energy, agriculture, and finance

Chapters

• 0:00 Introduction to Ghana in Focus
• 4:28 Ghana's Cedi: World's Best Performer
• 9:48 Key Factors Driving Currency Appreciation
• 15:19 Inflation Stabilization and Fiscal Discipline
• 21:00 Sectoral Growth Boosting the Economy
• 23:16 The Sustainability Challenge
• 26:56 Economic Outlook for Ghana
• 31:51 Next Week: African Tourism Spotlight

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:04

Welcome to this week's edition of Ghana in Focus with myself, kwame, ghanaian writer, broadcaster, journalist, writer and podcast entrepreneur. And this week's edition of Ghanaian Focus is a special the city, the currency of the Ghanaian city, the good, the bad and the ugly. So that's what we'll be talking about the Ghanaian city the good, the bad and the ugly. Alright, so before we get into the podcast, just to make you aware that you can subscribe to Ghana African Focus on YouTube and also you can subscribe to Ghana African Focus on YouTube and also you can subscribe to Ghana African Focus on Spotify. Just click, or just look for Ghana African Focus on Spotify, click the follow button and that will mean that every time we upload a new podcast, spotify will notify you. Likewise, if you click the notification button on YouTube, look out for Ghana stroke African Focus, click the notification button on youtube. Look out for ghana stroke african focus, click the notification bell and youtube will inform you every time we upload a new podcast. And if you'd like to give us a donation to help the show, help you bring some great content from ghana and from the african continent continent or from the African world you can donate a little less than three you a dozen month and I'll leave you the link to donate on the front end of the show, alright? And if you want to come to Ghana, do business, know about how to set up a business, know about the Ghana card, know about immigration, etc. Then we do do a consulting session whereby we can give you a lot of valuable information and also signpost you to third parties who will be able to also give you some good information as well. So, if you like a one hour consulting session, we charge $30 for that, $1 for that. But if you also want a 20, so half an hour briefing, you know, to give you an idea of what we can help you with, then that's 20 dollars for half an hour briefing. All right. So let's get into this edition of gardening focus. Looking at the gardening city the good, the bad and ugly all right. So the good City, the good, the bad and the ugly All right. So the good is that the city is the world's best performing currency so far in 2025. Bearing in mind that just two and a half years ago 2022, ghana City was the world's worst performing currency of that year, and so it's a fantastic turnaround that, within two and a half years, the Ghana city is now the best, the world's best performing currency, and so what are the factors behind this? Is it sustainable and what could be some of the consequences of Ghana having a low city, a city where it is now, or as well, as what happens if the city wants to depreciate, which it will do, and I'll come on to that as the podcast evolves.

Speaker 1: 3:22

So some of the key factors that has allowed the city to appreciate against all major currencies so far this year so it's appreciated against the US dollar, the British pound sterling and also the euro. We'll tell you that as follows. So so far, the Ghanaian city has appreciated nearly a whopping 50 percent against the year's door since the beginning of the year by the phenomenal, phenomenal achievement by the you know, the current NDC Mahama government. Yeah, now the city started the year at 15 Ghanaias to a US dollar and it's now strengthened to just above 10.2 cities per US dollar. So that shows you a great appreciation, as I just said, since the beginning of the year.

Speaker 1: 4:22

Now, what are some of the driving factors behind this? Now, obviously there was an election in of the year. Now, what are some of the driving factors behind this? Now, obviously, there was an election in December last year that people voted decisively. In fact, the margin of victory for John Mahama and the NDC was the biggest margin in Ghana's recent history since 2000. Massive, massive victory for John Mahama and the NDC. And if you look at the Ghanaian House of Parliament, the number of seats proved that In the 275 House, the NDC has a whopping 188, sorry 87 seats compared to the NDC's. So MPP the NDC's, so MPP, the outgoing administrations 88. So there was a massive, massive defeat of the MPP, which was predicated on a poor performing economy, of which a poor performing city was the foundation of that economic decline that garnered awareness, particularly between 2021 and 2022.

Speaker 1: 5:33

And so, you know, a new government has come in and that has signaled improved investor confidence within the new government and some of the measures that they've taken, which includes some economic reforms, and some of these economic reforms include, you know, cutting government expenditure, which the last government refused to do. Also cutting government waste that the last government refused to do, and also making streamlined, you know, the budget. So, as I mentioned to you earlier on in the year, you know, I think around about March, april there was a budget that was held in Ghana and, like I said in one of my podcasts, that budget could either be make or break for this government, because it would tell us the trajectory, economically, of where they're heading Ghana, and so you know, within that budget there are many, many economic reforms, including student loan taxation and also cutting out, you know, a lot of unnecessary taxes, like the COVID levy, like the emissions levy and also like the e-levy, which was very, very popular, particularly with Ghanaian voters and also some businesses, business community as well. Also, there's been stabilization of inflation. So, if you recall, at the end of 2022, inflation in Ghana is at a whopping 54.8%. Yeah, by the time of the last election, that's a little down to around about 28%. Today, as we're speaking, in Ghana, inflation is just above 10%. Sorry, I beg your pardon. Inflation is about 18%. Yeah, down from 23% in May. So it tells you of the effects of the current government's economic reforms that has enabled inflation to go down significantly since January. Having said that, though, food inflation is still a problem in Ghana, where food is still expensive and I come onto that also within the podcast where food is still expensive, which is having an effect on certain aspects of growth. But this stabilization of inflation is also a big part as to why the city has improved or appreciated against the global currencies like the pound, the US dollar and the euro.

Speaker 1: 8:13

Also, as I sort of hinted, there's been a lot of fiscal discipline within this government in terms of not exceeding expenditure and also working within tight budgets in order to reduce the debt GDP ratio, because there is an ambitious target that this current government has set itself that they want to get at least the debt GDP ratio to manageable levels, and we're talking about in the realms of the high 50s, early 60s percentage points. So what that means in real terms is that the government wants to get the debt GDP ratio down to and about the high 50s and low 60s percentage. Now, if it is able to do that and is on track to do that via the discipline, via this having a very, very tight budget and not spending outside of that budget capacity then the government will be able to reach that target of 50 something or early 60 something percent of debt to GDP ratio, which also helps stimulate growth in the economy. Now, all these factors have compelled or enabled an environment whereby the local currency has appreciated against all major global currencies. Now, if you look at also some of the drivers, yeah, that are spearheaded this economic comeback, particularly the stabilisation of the city, is.

Speaker 1: 10:11

One of these is the debt restriction, as I just said earlier on debt restructuring and fiscal discipline. So, essentially, what has happened within the last few months is that Ghana has successfully restructured 13 billion US dollars in Euro bond debt, therefore easing its internal debt external, rather debt burden. So, because the city has appreciated, particularly against the US dollar, by a whopping 50%, half already, half of that debt restructuring has already been paid to those external creditors, meaning that Ghana, there's a bit more money for the government of Ghana to play around with, as opposed to having the currency not appreciated against the dollar. Again, as I've mentioned, the fiscal deficit, yeah, which is basically the debt GDP ratio. Now, apparently, according to the government of Ghana itself and also by international bodies like Bloomberg, the debt GDP ratio is expected to fall from a whopping 95% in 2022 to run about 60% by the end of this year, and that's like it's a large due to the fact that Ghana has been able to actually pay back, because of the efficient of the city, half of its Euro bond debt to the external creditors and, again, as part of this fiscal discipline that we're talking about. One thing that the government is aiming for is that it is aiming for a budget surplus by the year end, and so if the city continues to appreciate against global currencies like the US dollar, then it is very possible that there will be a budget surplus by the end of the year, and that will be a phenomenal, a phenomenal achievement by this government, considering where Ghana was, you know, just two and a half years ago, at the back end of 2022, with record inflation and also record interest rates and also a currency that was going through the roof. So you know, if the government can get body slippers by the end of the year, that would be a massive achievement.

Speaker 1: 12:44

Now, what another thing in terms of the city stabilisation, as I mentioned, you know, it's appreciated by a whopping 50% already, yeah, and that's helped. Okay. Reduce the cost of imports, because importation Ghana imports a lot of food 50% already, yeah, and that's helped. Okay. Reduce the cost of imports, because importation Ghana imports a lot of food and other services as well, and, because of the efficiency of the city, it has helped reduce import costs, which are killing businesses we tried a lot of businesses left Ghana last couple or few years ago and also stabilize fuel and food prices to a certain degree.

Speaker 1: 13:23

Now, fuel at the beginning of the year, you know, ghanaians were buying petrol at the pump for around about 17 Ghana cities. That now has reduced to around about 10, 11 Ghana cities amongst the various oil marketing companies that operate within Ghana. So, again, that's put money in people's pockets. Because of the city's appreciation against the dollar, because people now are not spending so much on transport, because transportation whether you were a private driver or used public transport, transportation was a big kind of expenditure of all the Ghanaians. Yeah, and so, because of the fact that the city has appreciated, thus making fuel cheaper, thus reducing petrol prices and thus making it cheaper to run a car in Ghana and also to do car business in Ghana, that has allowed people to get some money in their pockets.

Speaker 1: 14:26

Okay, because of the stabilisation of the fuel prices, because of the city's appreciation, yeah, and also, like I said at the beginning, also, food is still an issue. Food and fishing is still an issue in Ghana, but not as, nowhere near, as it was just over two years ago. But food prices, particularly in a country that has a lot of arable land for me, food prices are still high in Ghana but nonetheless, you know their prices, that they're increasing, is beginning to come down a peg or two. Now I mentioned inflation and the reason why, you know that's now dipped to 18.4% as of last month year, may, and apparently the government's projections to take it down even further to 10% by 2026 is attributed primarily to the tight monetary policy and also improved extreme instability. So, like I said, since April the Ghana city has stabilised, stabilised against global currencies like the US dollar, the pound sterling and the euro, and because of this, government is not able to, you know, have a bit of money to play with.

Speaker 1: 15:58

And also because of the tight monetary policy that this government has enacted upon, ie to cut waste within public sector, ie to to tighten the NSA spending. So, for example, the government has cancelled, all you know, trips on first class. Yeah, so people are taking on, under the last government, people going, you know, left, left, right and center on first class, which was costing the government a lot of money. This government has now learned that in the bud and is following a tight monetary regime, which means that a lot of first class travel has been cancelled by the current government and ministers are encouraged to, you know, go travel, travel on, you know, economy as opposed to business class or first class. Again, in terms of government expenditure, the government has now put a policy in place where every government minister and even the district assembly members will now operate in electronic cars. Yeah, as opposed to, um, gas gas guzzling four by fours like the v8 that were taking a lot of uh revenue in terms of petrol revenue. Yeah, and so the government has now got a policy whereby every minister, and also the president himself, and also the regional ministers, as well as the district assembly members, are going to be using electric vehicles, which will mean two things that a government is not spending massive amounts of money buying fuel, buying petrol for used cars. And, secondly, it's going to help with the Ghana's green policy, green agenda policy, as well as safeguarding the environment as well. So all this is encompassed within the tight fiscal monetary space which government has put in place, which is obviously why you have now inflation uh being under control within ghana, which is also helping the performance of the local currency, again, you know uh.

Speaker 1: 18:13

Another reason why the city's performing is because there's sectoral growth within key sectors of the Ghanaian economy. So, for example, agriculture, and agriculture is the bedrock not just of Ghana but of every single African country. Yeah, because basically we live in an agrarian society. Yeah, and so agriculture in Ghana is very, very key and very important, as I mentioned before in another podcast referring to Ibram Choury of Burkina Faso. He is aware of the fact that agriculture mentioned before in another podcast referring to Ibrahim Chourio, burkina Faso he has aware of the fact that agriculture plays a very key and pivotal role in nation's development, which is why he's invested a lot of money to improve Burkina Faso's agriculture. Again, like with Ghana as well, you know this government. You know this government. You know, under this government, within the six months of this government here, we've seen strong growth in crops like cocoa, like cashew nuts, which has been supported by a strong irrigation and mechanisation programs, which have helped farmers improve their yield. Yeah, and also with the seedlings as well, ghana is beginning to produce its own organic seasons, as opposed to GM seasons and hybrid seasons, and because of that, that's now increasing agriculture, which is again helping to bolster crops like cocoa, like cashew nuts, etc. Which are big, big inners for Ghana again, which is also helping the foreign revenue, which again helps stabilize the currency.

Speaker 1: 19:51

Now, again, you know, industry. The industry sector is also has experienced growth in the last six months. So, you know, when we look at mining, especially especially lithium, so we're not talking about gold mining or diamond mining, but lithium. Ghana discovered lithium in huge quantities about a couple of years ago, and lithium is a very, very important mineral because it's basically used within AI and also the electric cars revolution that we see taking place in Europe and also North America and Asia and also parts of the continent as well, and so lithium mining is beginning to expand rapidly in Ghana, as well as manufacturing and construction. So these key industries are also playing a part in the economic revival of Ghana. Also, services such as FinTech, ict you know, digital payment sectors as well is also helping within to foster economic well, not economic recovery, but more like investor confidence within the economy because of these sectors, such as fintech, ict, which are becoming very, very um credible and operational, functional and more in terms of more investor friendly in ghana. So these you, so these services, are seeing sectoral growth, which is also helping to fuel the efficiency of the Ghana city.

Speaker 1: 21:31

You know, because of the fiscal trinity of this current government, which has led to the appreciation of the Ghana city. It has increased investor confidence and credit rating upgrade within Ghana. So, just recently, fitch, which is one of the world's foremost credit reference agencies in terms of global credit, you know, reverie has upgraded Ghana's rating from a default yeah, to minus B, with a stable outlook. So what that means is that, because of the fiscal management of this current government, as opposed to the last government, yeah, foreign investors are more confident now in the Ghanaian economy than they were a year ago. And because of this investor confidence, yeah, we have seen Ghana's credit rating move up, yeah, from D, where it was to, to default, to B minus, which basically means, you know, which basically means the economy has stabilized and that there is confidence within the economy, that Ghana's economy has a good outlook. And so this is also investment conference has also signalled investing within the Ghana economy and the various sectors within the economy, like mining, like agriculture, and all this has contributed to the appreciation of the Ghana city.

Speaker 1: 23:09

Okay, so, before we get on to the other, the bad and the ugly so I've told you about the good. See, these are all the good points, yeah, of the bad and the ugly. So I've told you about the good. So these are all the good points, yeah, of the appreciation of the city. Yeah. Now the bad aspect of it is that can it be sustained? Yeah, because I mentioned all these things about how and why the Ghana city has seen good appreciation over the last six months in particular.

Speaker 1: 23:38

Yeah, but can that be sustained? And I don't think so for three key reasons. Let me give you three reasons why I don't think it can be sustained. Yeah, now. One next year, 2026, ghana will need to pay now, some of its creditors yeah, this is not the euro bond, this is like they're still in debt, like China, the EU. They owe. Yeah, so that will have to come in now. It's not coming next year, and a lot of the gains that's been made by the currency this year will be severely tested, because now we need to buy more dollars in order to pay those external creators, like china, like the european union, etc.

Speaker 1: 24:26

Yeah, two, there's been also a lot of buying of dollars, yeah, because of the gold for the gold. Well, they started with the gold for oil, but that really did see great impact. But now and this is something I've said all along that Ghana needs gold reserves. So now you've got the gold board, which is like the gold board company of Ghana and what that initiative is. It seeks to buy gold from Ghanaian small-scale miners and miners of repute, and that gold is now stored within Ghana and that is used as gold reserves to pump up the currency.

Speaker 1: 25:07

Now, why I say it can't be sustained is that there's two things. So one, like I said, the government has been buying dollars in order to property, the city, as well as some of the other indices that I mentioned at the beginning of the show. Now, when the government starts paying his debt yeah, to china and the eu and others, yeah, some of that gold reserves is going to dwindle down. Yeah, because that will have a knockdown effect on those gold reserves that they've got already. Yeah, and that will obviously have a knockdown effect onto the currency. Yeah. And then the third reason is that you know, even though they are envisioning that there's a target for 10% by the end of this year or the next year, if government wants to do some spending in terms of more infrastructure development, which is one of its key objectives more infrastructure development they want to finish some of the schools that were built, they want to build some more roads, etc. Etc. Right, that's going to put pressure on inflation. Yeah, and that could mean inflation will go up, meaning that that will have an effect on the currency. So that's the bad aspect for me of this depreciation that it can't be sustained because of the factors that I've just mentioned already.

Speaker 1: 26:39

Now the other side of it. So, before I come into the outlook and and predicted growth and what we feel may happen, the other side of it is that prices of general goodness, services generally, have not come down in Ghana. So, outside of transportation, where the fuel cost of petrol has gone down quite a lot, where even transport hasn't come down as rapidly as it should have done, because there was even murmurs in some quarters that the Ghana Road Transportation Union was not really prepared to put down the prices of uh transportation costs because, as they say, the spare parts and other uh anomalies used to when the vehicles have not gone down, they were not willing to pass on has not gone down. They were not willing to pass on, you know, their fuel changes in terms of to the customer and so you know. But there were pressure by the government into doing so, you know, late last month. But aside from transportation right, a lot of goods and services have not really gone down in Ghana too much. So food, like I said, food is a big one that has not really come down as much as you would have expected given the appreciation of the Ghana city in the last six months. So food in certain places is still high again, you know.

Speaker 1: 28:06

Uh, other goodness, services, you know, like construction services, like, um, financial services, these other services, right, the prices have not gone down as one would have imagined. Yeah, and this is the ugly side of this depreciation. And even some building materials have stayed the same, apart from cement. Cement has gone down from about 120 grand a bag to around about mid-80s for a bag, don't forget. You know, a couple of years ago it was about it was under 40, so it was under 50.

Speaker 1: 28:39

So you know, some aspects of good and sales in ghana have not really changed, despite the patience of the ghana city and really and truly someone that can be attributed to greed. Because a lot of these people who import goods and services to Ghana, they're looking at their profit margins. They're looking at what they bought their goods for initially when the city was 15. Now it's down to 10. They're thinking to themselves if I cut my prices, I'm going to be at a loss. So there's a bit of some greed at hand which is not themselves if I cut my prices, I'm going to be at a loss. So there's a bit of kind of um some greed at hand which is not allowing prices to fall further than they should do, given the city's appreciation over the last six months or so. So that's the ugly side of this um city appreciation is that the price of goods and services are not coming down as fast as one would like, and that's a problem, you know, particularly for the older Ghanians who are still struggling with the cost of living crisis in Ghana.

Speaker 1: 29:44

And so let's look at the outlook for this year and beyond. So, according to the government of Ghana and according to Bloomberg, the GDP growth is projected for this year between regions of 4% to about 5%, which is not bad, considering that last year I think that Ghana had about 3% to 4%. So if this projected to finish the year about 5% to 5%, then that's a pretty good return, considering where Ghana was Now. Again, in terms of foreign reserves, it is stating that by the end of the year that will increase to 6.8 billion, as compared to where it is now around about 4 billion. That will also boost macroeconomic stability and also reinforce investor confidence in Ghana. And again, a key thing for this year is that Ghana intends to exit its IMF programme, because over the last few years it's been supported by an IMF programme and so Ghana aims to exit its program by mid-2026. So these factors I just mentioned should help within the stabilization of the currency.

Speaker 1: 31:11

All right, so this is important to you, particularly if you're coming to Ghana to do business. All right, so this is important to you, particularly if you're coming to Ghana to do business, if you're Ghanaian living in Ghana already, and if you are coming to, even coming to, holiday in Ghana, because obviously you want to get accommodation, you will buy food, you use transportation, you may want to do some feasibility studies, et cetera. So this podcast is giving you an idea of the current economic stability and economic prospects of the country right now and also what it hopes to attain by the end of the year. So this issue about the city, the picture of the city the good, the bad and ugly is a very, very important feature that we thought was important to bring to you, to give you an idea after how the appreciation of the Ghana city, how it came about, how it's come about, why it's come about, some of the factors that have effect to the city appreciation, some of the factors that may derail it, and also why some aspects of Ghana, in terms of the goods and services, have not seen a marked decline, even though the city has appreciated by 50% against the US dollar this year. So I hope you've enjoyed this special edition of Ghana in Focus, looking at the city, the Ghana currency of the city. I hope it's given you some future thought, particularly if you're coming to Ghana this year, whether to do business, whether to be on holiday or whether to look at potentially wanting to relocate to Ghana and start a business.

Speaker 1: 32:52

Alright, so next week we're going to be doing some tourism because it is that time of year in Europe and North America where people are looking at the holidays for the summertime. So we're going to bring you some fantastic African destinations because we want to promote we are promoting tourism in Africa. So, rather than go to Europe and North America or even Asia, I want you to come to Africa, because Africa's got a lot to offer. You know, despite the propaganda you hear on the Western media, africa's a beautiful continent with a lot to offer and we're going to share some of that with you in some of our African tourism series that we've continued throughout the year or for the last few years, that we're going to continue this year. All right, let's look out for that, starting next week. So from myself, kwame, and from all the crew here on Garnet in Focus, thank you for listening and we'll see you next week for some more tourism in Africa, looking at Cape Town. So thank you very much for listening and we'll see you next week.